Europe is heading into winter with record-low gas and diesel reserves. The cold could hit hard.
Europe is approaching the heating season with the weakest energy reserves in recent years. According to analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Gas Infrastructure Europe, underground gas storage facilities are currently only about 50–55% full. By the start of winter, the figure will at best reach 70–75%. For comparison: on average over the past five years, storage facilities were nearly 90% full by November.
The situation with diesel fuel is also tense. Stocks in Europe are at multi-year lows. The reasons are the same: supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East (especially the impact of events around the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar) and ongoing strikes on Russian oil refining.
Why this is happening
- Middle East Disruptions in LNG supplies from the region have sharply reduced the volumes that previously went to Europe. Asia has begun actively competing for available cargoes of liquefied gas.
- Ukraine Strikes on Russian refineries and restrictions on oil product exports have further tightened the global diesel market.
- High demand The heat in the summer of 2026 increased electricity consumption, and therefore gas for generation as well. Storage facilities were filled more slowly than usual.
What will happen if the winter turns out to be cold
- A sharp rise in gas and diesel prices
- Possible fuel shortages in individual countries
- Additional strain on industry and households
- Increased competition with Asia for LNG
Europe has been trying for several years to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources. But the current situation shows that alternative supplies do not yet fully cover the risks. Especially if the weather turns harsh.
The winter of 2026/27 could become a serious test for the European energy market.
